瑞银：黄金的盘整为进一步上涨奠定良好基础

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold despite recent price consolidation, indicating a positive investment sentiment towards the precious metals sector [2][6][7]. Core Insights - The gold price has been consolidating since reaching an all-time high of $3,500 in late April, with market participants reacting to US tariffs and economic data, leading to volatile trading conditions [2][6][7]. - High levels of uncertainty regarding US fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve's response enhance gold's appeal as a portfolio diversifier [7][8]. - There is a notable interest in buying dips in gold, with prices frequently returning above the $3,300 mark, suggesting potential for further upside [8][9]. Summary by Sections Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing thinner liquidity conditions, which could amplify price movements, making it easier for price changes to occur with lower trading volumes [3][9]. - Continued buying from the official sector and inflows into gold ETFs are contributing to a reduction in available metal in the market [9][10]. Physical Demand and Investment Trends - Global physical investment demand for gold bars and coins increased by 3% year-on-year in Q1, despite a 12% drop in overall consumer demand due to a decline in jewelry consumption [10][16]. - Mainland China accounted for approximately 38% of total physical consumer demand in Q1, highlighting its significant role in the gold market [10][26]. Shifts in Investor Preferences - There are indications that investors may be rotating from gold to white precious metals like platinum and silver, as evidenced by changes in futures open interest [4][32]. - Platinum has recently outperformed gold, gaining around 4% in a single day, while palladium also saw gains, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards more industrial precious metals [4][37].