汇丰：中国宏观追踪_加大民生保障力度

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The success of China-US trade talks is focused on stabilizing the truce, with potential for reduced export controls, but significant breakthroughs on trade issues may take time [3] - China has announced new guidelines to support people's livelihoods, emphasizing social welfare coverage and targeted support for low-income groups, youth, and gig workers [8][9] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) injected RMB1 trillion into the banking system to address liquidity needs, indicating a proactive approach to economic stability [13] Summary by Sections Trade Relations - Recent China-US trade tensions have led to high-level talks aimed at addressing export controls, with both sides showing willingness to negotiate [2][3] - China's exports to the US have seen a decline, but high-frequency data indicates a rebound in container exports, suggesting recovery from tariff impacts [4][62] Domestic Policies - China released 10-point guidelines to improve social welfare, including childcare subsidies and minimum wage increases, aimed at enhancing living standards [9][11] - The government plans to allocate RMB158.7 billion in fiscal support for low-income households, indicating a commitment to social safety nets [12] Economic Activity - The operating rates in various sectors, such as semi-steel tyres and chemicals, show mixed trends, with some sectors experiencing a decline while others see growth [14][16] - National box office revenues and postal delivery volumes have shown fluctuations, reflecting broader economic activity [32][30] Financial Measures - The PBoC's liquidity injection is a response to a maturity wall of interbank NCDs and ongoing government bond issuance, highlighting the need for immediate liquidity support [13] - Interbank rates have remained low, indicating a stable financial environment [29] Housing Market - New home sales in Tier-1 cities have started to rebound, while second-hand home sales in major cities have also seen an uptick, suggesting a recovery in the housing market [43][45] - Land sales remain below historical levels, indicating cautious market sentiment [47] Consumer Behavior - The report highlights the need for improved business confidence to stabilize employment, particularly for the youth entering the job market [12] - Consumer spending patterns are influenced by government policies aimed at boosting disposable incomes and consumption [10]