大越期货纯碱周报-20250616

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward at a low level. The supply of soda ash increased slightly while the demand was weak. Considering the high inventory, it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 last week was 1,156 yuan/ton, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease [2]. - The industry's production capacity is operating normally with a slight increase in supply. The expected output next week is 760,000 tons, and the operating rate will rise to around 87% [2]. - The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,100 tons to 155,700 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 480 tons to 98,300 tons. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the overall consumption volume fluctuates little [2]. - As of June 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,686,300 tons, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [4]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, and the daily melting volume is decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Weekly Quotes | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,212 | 1,252 | 40 | | Current Value | 1,156 | 1,200 | 44 | | Change Rate | - 4.62% | - 4.15% | 10.00% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease from the previous week [13]. - The profit of the combined soda - making method for heavy soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [16]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, including 405,800 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output falling from a historical high [20]. - The weekly heavy - soda production rate of soda ash is 54.83% [22]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [29]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1,686,300 tons, including 875,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the supply - demand gap, growth rate, etc. [36]