大越期货菜粕早报-20250616

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, then pulled back after rising. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is bullish, the main position is bullish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is tight while demand is rising. - The annual rapeseed output in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From June 4th to June 13th, the average trading price and trading volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, as well as the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal [13]. - Price Data: From June 5th to June 13th, the futures prices of rapeseed meal (main contract 2509 and far - month contract 2601) and the spot price in Fujian are provided [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From June 3rd to June 13th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [16]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - Other Data: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was strongly oscillating. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills stopped falling and rebounded, the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills increased slightly [26][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. Analyze from aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation [9].