大越期货钢矿周报-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, steel and ore prices moved sideways with minor fluctuations. The traditional consumption off - season has arrived, leading to a decline in the apparent demand for steel and an increase in iron ore port inventories. The pessimistic expectation for future demand has been the core trading logic this year. However, external factors such as the Middle - East situation driving up crude oil prices and the expectation of new domestic real - estate policies are starting to impact this logic. Currently, these factors have not had a substantial impact on reality, and attention should be paid to changes in trading volume. It is recommended to focus on intraday short - term trading for now and conduct trend trading after policy confirmation [67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - Price and Profit: PB powder price dropped from 729 yuan/wet ton to 720 yuan/wet ton, and its spot landing profit increased from - 5.29 yuan/wet ton to - 2.55 yuan/wet ton. Barite coarse powder price decreased from 702 yuan/wet ton to 693 yuan/wet ton, and barite mixed powder spot landing profit decreased from 6.42 yuan/wet ton to 5.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - Shipping Volume: Australia's shipping volume to China increased by 336.5 tons to 1815.8 tons, while Brazil's shipping volume to China decreased by 188 tons to 745.8 tons [6]. - Inventory and Transportation: Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 102.83 tons to 14503.14 tons, the arrival volume increased by 76.5 tons to 2673.9 tons, and the port clearance volume decreased by 13.81 tons to 315.25 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 11.1 tons to 85.4 tons [6]. - Steel Production: The average daily molten iron output decreased slightly from 241.8 tons to 241.61 tons, and the steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 58.87% to 58.44% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - Price: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3120 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton [35]. - Operating Rate: The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 83.41%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased from 76.69% to 74.01% [35]. - Profit: Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 99 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from 33 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit increased slightly from - 125 yuan/ton to - 124 yuan/ton [35]. - Production and Inventory: Rebar weekly production decreased by 10.89 tons to 207.57 tons, and its social inventory decreased by 10.43 tons to 375.19 tons, and enterprise inventory decreased by 1.97 tons to 182.89 tons. Hot - rolled coil weekly production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.65 tons, its social inventory increased by 4.59 tons to 268.88 tons, and enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.18 tons to 76.53 tons [35][37]. - Apparent Consumption and Trading Volume: Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.06 tons to 219.97 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased by 1.04 tons to 319.88 tons, and building material trading volume decreased by 2483 tons to 101832 tons [37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Operating Rate: The report presents historical data on blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates [44]. - Production: It shows historical data on the weekly actual production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises [49][51]. - Profit: Historical data on the average profit of electric - furnace building steel in China is provided [56]. - Inventory: Historical data on the social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China are presented [57][59]. - Trading Volume: Historical data on the trading volume of building steel by mainstream traders in China is shown [60]. - Apparent Consumption: Historical data on the weekly apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil are provided, as well as data on steel exports in China [61][62]. - Real - Estate and Manufacturing: Data on real - estate investment, sales, new construction, and construction area growth rates in China, as well as the manufacturing PMI, are presented [63][65].