焦煤焦炭周报-20250616

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The coking coal market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term due to factors such as slow resumption of production in some coal mines, inventory accumulation, low downstream procurement enthusiasm, and weak steel demand [5]. - The domestic coke market is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term, facing dual pressures from the continuous decline of coking coal prices and the off - season of the steel market, with an oversupply situation [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook - Coking Coal: Last week, coking coal prices continued to be weak. Some coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen are slowly resuming production, while a few in Lvliang have slightly reduced production. Coal mine inventories have accumulated, downstream is pessimistic, and the main coking coal prices are still weak. Steel mills' daily hot - metal output decreased slightly, and steel demand is weak. Overall, it will continue to be weak in the short term [5]. - Coke: The domestic coke market was weak last week. After the third price cut, steel mills continued to pressure top - loaded coke. Coke enterprises' production decreased slightly, and average coke - per - ton profit turned slightly negative. The market is facing dual pressures, and it is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory: - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory decreased by 1 million tons to 312 million tons, and coke port inventory decreased by 11.1 million tons to 203.1 million tons [12]. - Independent coke enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory decreased by 21.4 million tons to 669.5 million tons, and coke inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 87.3 million tons [15]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory increased by 3.1 million tons to 774 million tons, and coke inventory decreased by 3 million tons to 642.8 million tons [18]. - Production and Utilization Rate: - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises remained flat at 74% compared with last week [28]. - Coke daily output: Not detailed here. - Coke monthly output: Not detailed here. - Blast furnace开工率: Not detailed here. - Hot - metal output: Steel mills' daily hot - metal output was 241.61 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons compared with the previous week [5]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared with last week [32]. 3. Technical Analysis - Not provided