《农产品》日报-20250616

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: USDA's June supply - demand data shows a 300,000 - ton increase in global palm oil production and a 588,000 - ton increase in inventory for 2025 - 26. Indonesia's production and inventory remain unchanged, while Malaysia's production rises by 300,000 tons and inventory by 190,000 tons. Geopolitical conflicts and policy利好 may push up palm oil futures in the short - term, but fundamentals suggest potential inventory increase may suppress prices [1]. - Soybean oil: Similar to palm oil, affected by the same supply - demand data and external factors, with potential for short - term upward movement but facing pressure from inventory growth [1]. Meal - Current US soybean trading is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel blending requirements. New US soybean plantings have a fast progress and high good - quality rates, which put pressure on prices. Brazilian soybean premiums are strong, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. Domestic meal is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [4]. Corn - Northeast traders have tight inventories and strong price - holding sentiment, and North China traders' shipping willingness is low. Corn prices are strong in the short - term but may face limited upward momentum after a rise. In the long - term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [7]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot pig prices are in a volatile pattern. Slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, and secondary fattening has limited impact. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and while there is support from the reserve - purchase policy, upward drivers are weak [12]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to favorable weather in major producing regions. Raw sugar is likely to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, and domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak with increasing import competition and weak demand [14]. Cotton - Old - crop cotton basis is strong, supporting prices, but new - crop production is expected to be high. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, prices of various oils and fats products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 180 to 8530, and the price of P2509 increased by 0.91% [1]. - Inventory: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17,552 on June 13 compared to June 12, and the inventory of coastal soybean oil and rapeseed oil was also reported [1]. Meal - Price Changes: On June 13, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 to 2900, while the price of M2509 decreased by 8 to 3041. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 to 2610, and RM2509 remained unchanged [4]. - Supply and Demand: US soybean production and policy factors affect domestic meal prices. Brazilian soybean supply and domestic inventory trends also play important roles [4]. Corn - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.25% - 0.42%, and the price of corn starch 2507 decreased by 0.26% [7]. - Market Situation: The control of grain rights by traders, the supply and demand situation of downstream industries, and policy factors all influence corn prices [7]. Livestock (Pigs) - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of the main pig contract increased by 8.00%, and the prices of different delivery months also changed slightly [12]. - Market Situation: Factors such as slaughter weight, secondary fattening, supply - demand balance, and policy support affect pig prices [12]. Sugar - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.20%, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.30%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [14]. - Industry Situation: Sugar production, sales, inventory, and import data all show different trends, indicating a complex market situation [14]. Cotton - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.18%, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.11%. ICE US cotton increased by 0.55% [15]. - Market Situation: Supply - side factors (such as inventory and production expectations) and demand - side factors (such as downstream consumption and export data) jointly affect cotton prices [15].