广发期货《黑色》日报-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].