贵金属日评-20250616

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: June 16, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term geopolitical risk in the Middle East may cool down quickly, and the silver price surge driven by pure funds is difficult to sustain. Investors are advised to focus on the long - gold and short - silver arbitrage strategy after the silver momentum weakens [4]. - Gold's medium - term upward trend remains good, but its volatility has increased. Investors are recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions, avoiding full - position chasing, random top - guessing, or blind short - selling. Bearish - minded traders can consider the "long - gold and short - silver" arbitrage trade [4][6]. - The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but the short - term sharp rise in the gold price and the extremely high price - to - earnings ratio indicate significantly enhanced price volatility [6]. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - US economic data support the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process as soon as possible, which weakens the US dollar index and benefits gold. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased significantly, driving the London gold price above $3400 per ounce. However, the possibility of a large - scale war in the Middle East is low, and the geopolitical risk may cool down rapidly [4]. - In early June, speculative funds aggressively bought silver, causing the London silver price to rise to $36.9 per ounce, and the annual increase in the silver price exceeded that of the gold price. But this kind of price surge is difficult to sustain [4]. Medium - term Market - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a global financial market shock, and multiple hedging demands drove the gold price to soar. Although the gold price has回调 from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains intact [6]. - Trump's determination to promote domestic and foreign reforms remains unchanged, and the uncertainty in the market will continue. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will persist, but the price volatility has also increased [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of the Shanghai futures index against the Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][12] III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Diplomatic issues related to the Iranian nuclear problem: Trump stated that the US is committed to resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomacy, but the IAEA's 35 - nation council announced that Iran violated nuclear non - proliferation obligations, and Israel may attack Iran if Iran refuses the US proposal [18]. - US economic data: The initial jobless claims in the US last week remained at an eight - month high, and the May PPI increase was less than expected. These data support the Fed to resume interest - rate cuts soon [18]. - Trump's tariff warnings: Trump warned that he might raise automobile tariffs soon, and the US Commerce Department will impose tariffs on various steel - made household appliances from June 23 [19]