原油周评：地缘升级波动加剧，油价或高位仍存突破

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared rapidly in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, with weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. In the current market, the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz may be re - priced. With the arrival of the summer consumption peak season, the support for oil prices will strengthen. The recent US economic data has boosted the market's interest - rate cut expectation, alleviating the macro - economic pressure. The Iran - Israel conflict has increased market risk appetite, which may further boost oil prices. Therefore, there is still room for oil prices to rise, and it is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [13][20][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the latter half of the oil price was affected by the Iran - Israel conflict and soared rapidly, with the three major crude oil futures recording weekly gains of over 12%. In the absence of an obvious sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict this week, there may still be a small upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [535 - 565] yuan/barrel and consider cautious bottom - fishing for long positions. However, be aware of the rapid decline in oil prices when there is news of geopolitical easing [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and then quickly rose in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, resulting in weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. Currently, the Iran - Israel conflict has not had a substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the war spreads to neighboring producing countries, oil prices will still have upward potential [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Macro - economy: - US economic data is improving. The May CPI data was lower than expected, and the initial and continuing jobless claims increased, along with weak PPI data. This has increased the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September to over 80%, reducing the upward pressure on oil prices [25]. - The Iran - Israel conflict has escalated rapidly. Israel launched a large - scale military operation against Iran on June 13, and Iran retaliated. The nuclear negotiation between Iran and the US was cancelled. If the conflict spreads to the Strait of Hormuz, it may disrupt crude oil exports and open up upward space for oil prices [31]. - Supply: - According to the May monthly report, OPEC + production decreased by 106 thousand barrels per day from March to April. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, nearly 80% of crude oil transportation will be affected, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE having some alternative transportation capabilities [34][35]. - There are still contradictions between Saudi Arabia and Russia in production. The US production remains stable [39][42]. - Demand: - Attention should be paid to changes in institutional expectations. The manufacturing industries in China and the US are contracting, but refined oil production has shown a slight recovery [45][48][54]. - Inventory: - US crude oil inventories are decreasing, mainly due to the recovery of consumption. US refineries' daily crude oil processing volume has reached a peak since July 2024, indicating a recovery in North American consumption [56]. - US refined oil inventories are increasing, which may narrow the crack spread [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared after the Iran - Israel conflict. The market may re - price the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz. With the summer consumption peak season and the boost of the interest - rate cut expectation, and the ongoing Iran - Israel conflict, there is still upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [64].