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建信期货铁矿石日评-20250616
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-16 08:45

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the iron ore price is weak, but there is still some support at the bottom due to the relatively high profitability of steel enterprises. Nearly 60% of steel enterprises are still profitable, which may slow down the pace of steel production cuts [10][11]. - In the long - term, real estate investment is falling at a rate of about 10%, and infrastructure investment cannot make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the US, the uncertainty of steel exports will gradually emerge, and the high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the increasing supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "declining terminal demand - narrowing steel enterprise profits - steel enterprise production cuts - trend decline in ore prices" may appear in the second half of the year [11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1 Market Review - On June 13, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower, rebounded slightly after a small decline, and then weakened again, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on June 13. For example, the RB2510 contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with a trading volume of 2,168,544 lots and an open interest of 2,135,661 lots, a decrease of 84,364 lots [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on June 13. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions held 433,829 lots, a decrease of 17,165 lots, and the top 20 short positions held 459,805 lots, a decrease of 5,793 lots, with a deviation of - 2.55% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot market: On June 13, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were also flat [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend. The K and D values continued to rise, while the J value turned down. The daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross [9]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - Short - term: The current fundamentals show that the iron - water production has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the downstream building - material demand is seasonally weak due to the rainy season. The supply has increased by more than 10% in the past four weeks compared with the previous four weeks, and overseas mines are in the end - of - quarter rush - to - volume stage. Overall, the supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is gradually falling, resulting in a weakening pattern for the ore price. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the short - term ore price is weak but has some support [10][11]. - Long - term: Real estate investment is falling at a rate of about 10%, and infrastructure investment cannot make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the US, the uncertainty of steel exports will gradually emerge, and the high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the increasing supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "declining terminal demand - narrowing steel enterprise profits - steel enterprise production cuts - trend decline in ore prices" may appear in the second half of the year [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [12]. - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Different components of social financing scale had different changes, such as an increase of 10.38 trillion yuan in RMB loans to the real economy, a decrease of 963 billion yuan in foreign - currency loans to the real economy, etc. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the number of days of iron ore inventory available for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and dredging volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free iron - water cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average iron - water production, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly production of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products at steel mills [16][18][24][27][28][35][40][45].