《有色》日报-20250616

Tin Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - Summary by Directory: - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - Inventory Change: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Summary by Directory: - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamental Data: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Summary by Directory: - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Electrowinning Cost: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - New Energy Material Price: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Summary by Directory: - Price and Basis: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - Raw Material Price: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - Summary by Directory: - Price and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - Ratio and Profit/Loss: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - Inventory: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - Summary by Directory: - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - Fundamental Data: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - Inventory: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Summary by Directory: - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].