Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of weak supply and light demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and high - level operation. The report suggests a light - position short - selling strategy at high prices, while controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 59,780 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 27,292 hands, up 8,261 hands; the position volume was 300,422 hands, up 152,990 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 220 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 32,043 hands/ton, down 75 hands [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 697 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 6,595 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,576 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: Monthly lithium carbonate production was 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; imports were 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; exports were 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise operating rate was 53%, up 3 percentage points; monthly power battery production was 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. - Downstream and Application Situation: The average price of some materials remained unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 53%, up 5 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 47%, down 10 percentage points. New energy vehicle production was 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; sales were 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; cumulative sales were 5,608,000 units, up 1,713,000 units; monthly exports were 212,000 units, up 12,000 units; cumulative exports were 855,000 units, up 336,000 units [2]. - Option Situation: The total subscription position was 97,406 contracts, up 5,301 contracts; the total put position was 33,930 contracts, up 4,193 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions was 34.83%, up 2.5476 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.22%, up 0.0179 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The 2025 new energy vehicle countryside campaign was launched in Rugao, Jiangsu. The number of short - listed models reached 124, covering a wide range of vehicle types [2]. - In May, financial data matched the real - economy operation. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale stock was 8.7%, M2 balance was 7.9%, and M1 balance was 2.3%. The increase in social financing scale in the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan [2]. - GAC Group promised to complete dealer rebates within two months to promote the high - quality development of the automotive industry [2]. - In the past two years, the sales of models above 300,000 yuan declined, while the sales of models below 100,000 yuan increased by 51% in the first five months [2]. - From January to April, the total output of lithium batteries in China exceeded 473 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. Among them, the output of energy - storage lithium batteries exceeded 110 GWh, and the installed capacity of power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles was about 184 GWh [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - Price and Position: The lithium carbonate main contract was volatile and weak, down 0.7% at the close. The position volume increased, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Fundamentals: On the raw - material side, overseas mines maintained high prices and reduced shipping willingness, and smelters had weak purchasing sentiment. On the supply side, domestic supply was expected to be high in the short term and then decline. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness was weak, and the spot market transaction was cautious [2]. - Options: The put - call ratio of positions was 34.83%, up 2.5476% month - on - month. The option market was bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increased [2]. - Technical Analysis: In the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 - axis, and the green bars converged [2]. 3.4 Operation Suggestion Light - position short - selling transactions at high prices, with attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2].
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250616
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-16 10:37