瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250616

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating provided. 2) Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly. On the supply side, zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and smelter profits are further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season for downstream demand, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year, and subsequent export demand may shrink due to tariff factors. The domestic social inventory has increased, while overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - side is stronger with rising positions. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 21,840 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,626.5 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 293,993 lots, down 6,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,743 lots, up 2,227 lots. - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 9,966 tons, up 994 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons; the LME inventory is 131,000 tons, down 1,025 tons [2]. b) Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,690 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. - The basis of the main ZN contract is 160 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.95 dollars/ton, up 7.41 dollars. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. c) Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [2]. d) Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - The social zinc inventory is 56,300 tons, down 4,900 tons [2]. e) Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. - The automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [2]. f) Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 16.05%, up 1.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 16.05%, up 1.4%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.21%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.46%, down 0.02% [2]. g) Industry News - In May 2025, China's social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap narrowing. - The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities in May 2025, showing that Hangzhou led with a 0.8% month - on - month increase, while Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.4%, increased by 0.7%, decreased by 0.8%, and decreased by 0.4% respectively. - Iranian officials are seriously considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz; the Israeli attack on Iran has intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and the conflict has expanded to oil and gas facilities [2].