Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2510 contract rebounded with increased positions. The supply of rebar continued to shrink, with the weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills decreasing for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate dropping to 45.5%. The inventory in both steel mills and the social market continued to decline, with a total inventory reduction of 124,000 tons. The downstream demand was based on on - demand procurement, and the apparent demand declined again. However, the current tense situation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in international oil prices had an impact on commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the red bars expanded. The recommended operation was intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume was 2,164,732 lots, up 29,071 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 10,749 lots, up 22,799 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was 5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,766 tons, down 1,198 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 114 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (by theoretical weight) was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (by actual weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The price in Guangzhou (by theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (by theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 140 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 721 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3314 million tons, up 1.0645 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 0.8716 million tons, down 0.0103 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4273 million tons, down 0.0322 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 0.6262 million tons, down 0.0483 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.0757 million tons, down 0.1089 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.50%, down 2.39 percentage points. The factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8289 million tons, down 0.0197 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.7519 million tons, down 0.1043 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 3.13 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 18.61 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.097 million tons, up 0.157 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 47.05 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. From January to May, the cumulative floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%, among which the floor area under construction of residential buildings was 4.35354 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the completed area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [2].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250616
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-16 10:43