Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 16, the JM2509 contract closed at 795.5, up 2.84%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 708. The coking coal mine capacity utilization rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, the cumulative import growth rate has decreased, there are signs of marginal improvement in supply, and the clean coal inventory continues to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 16, the J2509 contract closed at 1371.0, up 1.90%. The third round of coke price cut has been implemented. In the first five months of 2025, China's imports and exports to the five Central Asian countries reached 286.42 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, reaching a record high for the same period. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement in raw material supply, and the hot metal output has declined from a high level. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 795.50 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan [2]. - J main contract closing price: 1371.00 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 717,718.00 hands, up 28,840.00 hands [2]. - J futures contract holding volume: 55,902.00 hands, down 1,318.00 hands [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 22,629.00 hands, down 2,410.00 hands [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: 96.00 hands, down 265.00 hands [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 15.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 21.50 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan [2]. - JM main contract basis: 184.50 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan [2]. - J main contract basis: 74.00 yuan/ton, down 21.50 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 708.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 3.3613 million tons, up 87,200 tons [2]. - Clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.5147 million tons, up 64,100 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - Raw coal output (monthly): 40.328 million tons, up 1.3974 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume (monthly): 3.604 million tons, down 179,000 tons [2]. - Daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 187,800 tons, down 2,100 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 5.4473 million tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal total inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 7.9807 million tons, down 208,500 tons [2]. - Coking coal available days of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 12.32 days, up 0.06 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume (monthly): 0.88934 million tons, up 25,970 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 3.92616 million tons, down 235,310 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.5869 million tons, down 81,600 tons [2]. - Coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 1.2571 million tons, down 13,000 tons [2]. - Coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.4284 million tons, down 29,600 tons [2]. - Coke available days of 247 sample steel mills (weekly): 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. - Coke and semi - coke export volume (monthly): 0.00 tons, down 55,000 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Coke output (monthly): 4.238 million tons, up 78,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.655 million tons, up 53,100 tons [2]. Industry News - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply increased. Gold prices have risen, but the increase is often short - term and impulsive. In the medium and long term, factors such as the repeated US tariff policies, the expansion of the US fiscal gap, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury bond credit are driving the upward trend of gold prices [2]. - At the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The "Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou (Draft for Comment)" is open for comments, which mentions optimizing real estate policies, completely canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price restrictions, and reducing the down - payment ratio and interest rate of loans [2].
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250616
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-16 10:43