策略日报：缩量反弹-20250616

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market showed a high opening but closed nearly flat, indicating that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, with future volatility likely to adjust downward. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical conflicts [19][7]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded with three major indices showing a decrease in trading volume, totaling 1.24 trillion, down by 0.26 trillion from the previous day. Approximately 3,400 stocks rose while over 1,500 fell. The report suggests that in the context of weak fundamentals, the probability of a bull market driven by sustained volume is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors like dividends, agriculture, and technology [22][2]. - In terms of sector performance, media, communication, and computer sectors led the gains, while agriculture, beauty care, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind. Concepts such as digital currency and Ant Group performed well, while avian influenza and diamond cultivation concepts faced declines [22][2]. Group 3: US Stock Market - The US stock market experienced declines across major indices due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with the Dow Jones down 1.79%, Nasdaq down 1.3%, and S&P 500 down 1.13%. The report highlights that rising US Treasury yields, which recently surpassed 5%, may negatively impact the market, suggesting that a recession narrative could become a focal point for trading in the future [26][2]. - The report indicates that the US stock market is currently in a phase of head-and-shoulders consolidation, and investors are advised to avoid short-term positions and wait for better buying opportunities [26][2]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1799, a decrease of 15 basis points from the previous close. The RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive impacts from US-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows strong technical signs, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [29][3]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.89%, with oils, coal, and petroleum leading the gains, while corn, live pigs, and non-ferrous metals faced declines. Concerns over oil supply disruptions due to escalating conflicts have led to increased prices in the oil sector. However, the report advises a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices, suggesting a wait-and-see strategy [33][3].