建信期货多晶硅日报-20250617

1. Report Date - The report is dated June 17, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The research team consists of Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main polysilicon contract rebounded from a low level. The closing price of PS2508 was 33,585 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.93%. The trading volume was 62,835 lots, and the open interest was 51,277 lots, a net decrease of 5,586 lots [4] Outlook - The supply - demand contradiction has not further intensified after the "rush installation" ended, but terminal pressure will gradually be transmitted upstream. The weekly output in the second week of June remained at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to stay around 100,000 tons. It is difficult to increase production during the wet season, which may relieve the potential supply pressure in the far - month. If production cuts are implemented, it will support the current spot and futures prices. The weak reality is that the "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is ending, and the terminal photovoltaic demand has dropped to around 40GW. Although the weekly data of silicon wafers and cells has not decreased rapidly, the inventory has been accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks, and there are few positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period. The 07 contract is already at a discount to the price range of re - feed materials, reflecting the pessimistic expectations of funds. The resistance to further decline is increasing, but if the production cut does not increase, the fundamentals are difficult to provide continuous rebound momentum, and it will mainly operate weakly in the range [4] 4. Market News - As of June 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The transaction price range of n - type re - feed materials was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p - type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will hold the "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" in Leshan, Sichuan from June 24 - 26 [5]