建信期货生猪日报-20250617

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The central reserve frozen pork purchase policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, the supply of pigs is increasing while demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot, and the medium - to - long - term market is still affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future purchase policies [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: On the 16th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then fluctuated lower after a short - term rise, and closed in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 13,850 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total position of the index decreased by 1,223 lots to 161,556 lots. The national average price of ternary pigs was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - Analysis: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rises, terminal demand weakens, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, with the operating rate and slaughter volume remaining low. On the 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 145,500 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day and 27,000 heads more than a week ago. On the supply side, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. The large - pig slaughter volume declined, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly. On the policy side, on June 11, the central government conducted a tender for the purchase of 10,000 tons of frozen pork, with the transaction price of No. 2 - 4 pork ranging from 20.3 to 20.8 yuan/kg [10]. 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [19]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period [19]. - As of the week of June 13, the average slaughter weight of sample pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [19]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 12 was 0.06 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [19].