甲醇日报-20250617

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Li Jin, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jie, and Feng Zeren [3][4] - Data Sources: Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in position and rose today, with the 09 main contract also increasing in position. The weighted contract showed a large intraday increase followed by a decline, and finally closed with a large real - body positive line with long upper and lower shadows, rising 2.84% overall. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong, but in the medium - term, there are still pressures on the domestic production and supply side, and there may be a peak - to - trough decline in the phased market [5]. - Technically, in the short - term, it is considered to be in a volatile and strong - running state. In the hourly line cycle, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area twice, and the MACD fast and slow lines ran above the zero axis. In the daily line cycle, the MACD fast line has crossed above the zero axis, the RSI entered the overbought area and became dull, and the price broke through the downward - trend pressure line [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the trading volume, open interest, change in open interest, and speculation degree of contracts MA2601, MA2505, and MA2509 are presented. Among them, the MA2509 contract had a trading volume of 2,593,634, an open interest of 820,106, and an open - interest increase of 58,791, with a rise of 3.14% [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Furan Energy Group Co., Ltd. is seizing opportunities to layout the green hydrogen - based energy industry by increasing capital and merging green methanol companies. Green methanol is a green hydrogen - based energy produced from renewable energy or biomass resources. It is in an undersupplied market pattern, with its global annual production capacity expected to increase from 500,000 tons in 2023 (less than 1% of the total) to 1.95 million tons in 2028 (about 10% of the total) [13]. Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including futures prices and warrant quantities, the price difference between MA09 and MA01, the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, the profits of three methanol production processes, and overseas methanol market prices [15][18][23]