建信期货棉花日报-20250617

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The spot cotton price index has increased, but the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are weak, and spinning mill profits have deteriorated. The开机 rate of local weaving factories in Xinjiang has increased after the festival, but the overall rate remains low. [7] - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, international agricultural products have risen. The signing and shipment of US cotton are in good progress, and the USDA report has adjusted relevant data favorably. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase steadily, and there is a risk of high - temperature damage to cotton. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and macro changes should be monitored. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for cotton sales in different regions vary. The cotton yarn market has slightly better but still weak transactions, with prices difficult to rise. The cotton fabric market is dull, and prices are stable and weak. [7] - Analysis of Market Conditions: Overseas, the increase in crude oil has driven up agricultural products. The signing and shipment of US cotton is good, and the USDA report has positive adjustments. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase, but there is a risk of high - temperature damage. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. [8] 2. Industry News - As of the week of June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good - quality rate was 49%. As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange - rate data. [18][19][21][26]