建信期货集运指数日报-20250617

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - Today's afternoon futures plunge might be due to the SCFIS index's increase falling short of expectations. However, the index may have included some ships delayed at the end of May, not fully reflecting price - increase factors and causing a lagging drag on the index. The spot market shows that shipping companies' online quotes for June are relatively stable, indicating that the price increase in June has been implemented well. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable运力 supply, and stabilized quotes and container volumes, the short - term price increase during the peak season is difficult to be falsified, and the price increase may be supported by fundamentals. If the price stabilizes in June, the central price of the far - month peak - season 08 contract should also rise, and its current position may be undervalued. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market: This afternoon's futures plunge might be related to the SCFIS index's increase not meeting expectations. The index may have a lag due to including delayed ships at the end of May. On the spot side, shipping companies' quotes for June are stable, with large container quotes ranging from $2760 - $3300. Some shipping companies have announced July prices with significant increases [8] - Suggestions: Given the strong European export demand, stable运力 supply, and stabilized quotes and container volumes, the short - term price increase during the peak season is hard to be falsified. If the June price stabilizes, the 08 contract may be undervalued, and for the 10 - month contract (traditional off - season), consider short - selling opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Shipping Market: From June 9th to 13th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined after continuous increases, with different routes showing different trends. In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. On June 13th, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index dropped by 6.8%. In May, China's exports to the EU increased by 12% year - on - year. The North American market has seen a decline in spot booking prices due to increased运力 supply [9][10] - Geopolitical News: Iran and Israel have launched a new round of military strikes. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned Israel's actions. US President Trump hopes for an agreement between Iran and Israel and is open to Russian President Putin as a mediator [10] - Trade Organization News: At the WTO's Service Trade Council meeting, China's representative criticized the US's "reciprocal tariff" narrative and called on the US to abide by WTO rules [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index shows that on June 16, 2025, the European route index was 1697.63, up 4.6% from June 9th, and the US - West route index was 2908.68, up 33.1% [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market: The table provides trading data for multiple contracts on June 12, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: There are charts showing global container运力, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]