建信期货股指日评-20250617

1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review - On June 16, the Wind All - A Index rose with reduced volume, opening and then oscillating higher, closing up 0.54%. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.25%, 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.68% respectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing better. In index futures, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed up 0.35%, 0.50%, 0.47%, and 0.71% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] - Detailed data on stock index futures and spot, including closing price, daily change, daily amplitude, trading volume, trading value, open interest, and change in open interest, are provided in Table 1 [7] 4. Market Outlook - In the external market, the latest US CPI data released last week was lower than expected, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. In the tariff war, the overall tone of Sino - US trade conflict tends to ease, but the second - round meeting results were not beyond expectations. The market trading logic is gradually shifting to the domestic economic fundamentals [8] - In China, multiple economic data were released today. In the scenario of "rush to export" and "rush to re - export", although the growth rate of May's foreign trade data slowed down, it still showed resilience. The actual effect of the easing tariff war may be reflected in June. The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded expectations, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened, still dragging down economic performance [8] - Overall, as Sino - US trade relations ease, the market trading logic returns to the domestic economic fundamentals. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is still hovering at a key resistance level, and the trading volume has not further broken through. The short - term callback pressure may increase. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - low position for long positions [8][9] 5. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including the performance of major domestic indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, and inter - delivery spread trend [11][15][18][21][23] 6. Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; among them, residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% [31] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 413.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 373.16 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2,031.71 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 1,843.24 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [31]