广发期货《黑色》日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a significant increase in coking coal prices due to the impact of rising crude oil prices, driving a slightly stronger trend in ferrous metals including steel. However, it does not change the pattern of loose supply and demand of Chinese steel. In the short term, it will boost market sentiment, but the downward trend remains. It is recommended to take a short - position approach on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly this week, with the reduction mainly in Australia, but Australian shipments remained at a high level overall, and Brazilian shipments increased steadily. The arrival volume decreased slightly, mainly due to the reduction of Brazilian ore arrivals. In the future, the average arrival volume will still remain at a relatively high level. The terminal demand for finished products is at risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience in the short term. The 09 contract of iron ore should be considered from a bearish perspective in the medium - to - long term [4]. - Coke: The coke futures oscillated and rose, while the spot was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection inspections, and the demand has seen a peak - to - decline trend. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a high level around 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures oscillated and rose, while the spot was weakly stable. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly due to environmental protection inspections but remained at a relatively high level, and the import situation was complex. The demand from downstream industries showed a peak - to - decline trend but still had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a high level around 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. - Silicon Iron: The supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron has begun to rise recently. The cost side is expected to decline overall. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the coal price change should be focused on [6]. - Silicon Manganese: The supply pressure of silicon manganese still exists. The manganese ore supply is expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the support for silicon manganese is limited. The cost adjustment is difficult to stabilize. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the manganese ore price change should be focused on [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Prices and Spreads: The prices of most steel products showed small fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit also showed a downward trend. For example, the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2974 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China rebar decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton [1]. - Production and Inventory: The production of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 tons to 858.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons to 1354.6 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [1]. - Trading and Demand: The trading volume of building materials increased by 0.8 tons to 11.0 tons, an increase of 8.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 tons to 868.1 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increased by 1.1 yuan/ton to 761.2 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 49.9 yuan/ton to 56.7 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply and Demand: The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, an increase of 2.3%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.2 tons to 241.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [4]. - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory increased by 86.2 tons to 13933.14 tons, an increase of 0.6% [4]. Coke - Prices and Spreads: The futures prices of coke increased, while the spot prices were weakly stable. The third - round price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a decrease of 70/75 yuan/ton, and there were still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future [5]. - Supply and Demand: The supply decreased due to environmental protection inspections, and the demand showed a peak - to - decline trend. The iron - water output decreased slightly last week [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of coke decreased in various links, and the downstream procurement was generally cautious [5]. Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: The futures prices of coking coal increased, while the spot prices were weakly stable. The domestic coking coal price decline slowed down, and the import situation was complex [5]. - Supply and Demand: The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly due to environmental protection inspections but remained at a relatively high level. The demand from downstream industries showed a peak - to - decline trend but still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The coal - mine inventory continued to accumulate at a high level, and the port inventory also increased [5]. Silicon Iron - Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of silicon iron were generally stable, and the export price remained unchanged. The SF - SM main - contract spread decreased by 8.0 to - 292.0 [6]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of silicon iron showed a downward trend, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5.9% [6]. - Production and Inventory: The production of silicon iron decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [6]. - Demand: The demand for silicon iron was weak in both the steel - making and non - steel - making sectors, but the export still had some resilience [6]. Silicon Manganese - Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the cost adjustment was difficult to stabilize [6]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of silicon manganese was difficult to stabilize, and the production profit situation was not optimistic [6]. - Production and Inventory: The production of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the inventory increased [6]. - Demand: The demand for silicon manganese was affected by the weakening of iron - water output and the off - season of finished - product demand [6].