原木期货日报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. - The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there are significant differences in the market under the logic of subsequent delivery costs. - The main log contract reached around 792 yuan yesterday, and there is limited upward space at the current level. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis or short the far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On June 16, the prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 increased by 3.19%, 2.10%, and 2.09% respectively compared to June 13. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads increased by 8.0, while the 9 - 11 spread remained unchanged. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts decreased by 24.5, 16.5, and 16.5 respectively [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 16 compared to June 13. The CFR prices of radiata pine and spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged [1]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.184 on June 16, with no change compared to June 15. The import theoretical cost was 777.66 yuan, a decrease of 0.35 yuan compared to June 15 [1]. Supply - Monthly Supply: In May, the port throughput was 195.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 13.20% compared to April. The number of departing ships decreased by 7.94% [1]. Inventory - Weekly Inventory: As of June 13, the total inventory of logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also increased [3]. Demand - Weekly Demand: The average daily outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5% week - on - week to 5.98 million cubic meters as of June 13. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [3].