Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2507 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but the reduction of short positions was more significant. Technically, the price is below the moving average system, lacking moving average support. Short - term indicators are in a weak area, and the trend indicators show that both long and short forces are declining, resulting in a stalemate between the two [2][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, presenting a bullish signal [2]. - The basis of spot zinc is +180 (spot price is 22,020), indicating a bullish sign [2]. - On June 16, LME zinc inventory decreased by 775 tons to 130,225 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 994 tons to 9,966 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound but closed below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, also indicating a bearish signal [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (June 16) - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2507 opened at 21,950, closed at 21,840, with a decline of 110 compared to the previous settlement price [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (June 16) - The price of zinc concentrate in Linwaicun was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,020 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,924 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,276 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,550 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 26,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Suzhou was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linqiaozhou was 7,880 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (May 22 - June 16, 2025) - As of June 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 570,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous Thursday and a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous Monday [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (June 16) - In Shanghai, the total warrant increase was 322 tons; in Guangdong, the total warrant was 3,932 tons, a decrease of 203 tons; in Tianjin, the total warrant was 5,712 tons, an increase of 875 tons. The overall warrant increased by 994 tons to 9,966 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (June 16) - The total LME zinc inventory was 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons compared to the previous day. The注销仓单 accounted for 44.60% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (June 16) - Not detailed in the provided content, only the title is given [8] 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (June 16) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 240 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter Group was 22,360 yuan/ton; from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 24,000 yuan/ton; from Guangdong Zhongquan Lingnan was 22,090 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,790 yuan/ton; from Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead was 22,130 yuan/ton; from Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous was 22,080 yuan/ton [12]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in May 2025 - The planned production in May was 444,100 tons, the actual production was 422,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.74%. The production was 4.86% lower than the plan, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.00%. The planned production in June is 453,700 tons [14]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (June 16) - The processing fees in different regions showed different trends. For example, in Mingdao Island, Longnan, and Shenyang, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate increased by 200 yuan/metal ton; in Jiyuan, Yuanshanzhou, and Chifeng, it increased by 100 yuan/metal ton [16]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (June 16) - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 254,734 lots, a decrease of 39,964 lots compared to the previous trading day. In terms of long positions, the total long positions were 75,787 lots, a decrease of 3,574 lots. In terms of short positions, the total short positions were 80,132 lots, a decrease of 5,024 lots [17].
沪锌期货早报-20250617
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-17 02:24