大越期货燃料油早报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the tight supply of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel, and the closure of the arbitrage window from the West to Singapore will limit cargo arrivals in the first half of July. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the seasonal demand peak of utilities in the Middle East during summer. However, sufficient supplier inventories and weak downstream bunker demand may suppress the market fundamentals in the short term. The fuel oil is expected to run strongly. FU2509 will run strongly in the range of 3250 - 3350, and LU2508 will run strongly in the range of 3800 - 3900 [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply - side production cuts to be observed and neutral demand. There are potential risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 474.18 dollars/ton with a basis of 219 yuan/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 543.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 120 yuan/ton, showing a spot premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day line which is upward - sloping. High - sulfur主力 holds more long positions with a decrease in long positions, while low - sulfur主力 holds short positions with a decrease in short positions [3] - The overnight Middle East geopolitical risk first decreased and then increased. The possible US intervention in the Israel - Iran conflict raises market risk concerns [3] 3.2 Long - Short Focus - Likely to be Bullish: OPEC+ extends additional production cuts (implementation to be tracked), and China releases import quotas [4] - Likely to be Bearish: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The previous price of the FU主力 contract was 3169, and the current price is 3246, with a rise of 77 (2.43%); the previous price of the LU主力 contract was 3825, and the current price is 3854, with a rise of 29 (0.76%). The previous FU basis was 80, and the current one is 219, with a rise of 139 (173.50%); the previous LU basis was - 16, and the current one is 120, with a rise of 136 (- 827.08%) [5] - Spot Market: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 445.99 to 474.18 dollars/ton (6.32%), the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil rose from 519.50 to 543.50 dollars/ton (4.62%), the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 426.41 to 454.08 dollars/ton (6.49%), and the price of Singapore diesel rose from 613.79 to 640.83 dollars/ton (4.41%) [6] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of June 11 was 23.119 million barrels, an increase of 1.71 million barrels [3][8] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07 [13]