大越期货油脂早报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply. However, the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have a macro-level impact on the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in March decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,224, with a basis of 264, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,750 - 8,150 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,804, with a basis of 664, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,656, with a basis of 151, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4]. Recent利多利空 Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - 利空: Edible oil prices are historically high, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are loose [5].