大越期货白糖早报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season, with major institutions forecasting an increase in production and a relatively slower growth in consumption. The international sugar price is likely to continue to weaken, and the opening of the import profit window will increase imports, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium - term, and the short - term support level for the main 09 contract is around 5600. Traders are advised to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [4][5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: The USDA predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, consumption will grow by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 11.397 million tons. Green Pool forecasts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons. From January 1, 2025, the import tariff on syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 85,400 tons, a decrease of 105,500 tons year - on - year. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6130, and the basis for the 09 contract is 466, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May 2025, the industrial inventory in the 2024/25 season was 3.0483 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. The USDA predicts a surplus of 11.397 million tons, Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons, ISO indicates a possible shift from a deficit in 2024/25 to a surplus in 2025/26, and StoneX forecasts a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 430,000 tons. The overall trend shows an increase in supply and a relatively slower growth in demand [4][9][36]. - Domestic Supply - Demand Data: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data show that the domestic sugar market has its own characteristics. The cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.1138 million tons. In April 2025, the sugar import was 130,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 3.5. Position Data No information provided.