焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-17）-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market sentiment is somewhat pessimistic. With the seasonal off - peak demand, steel mills' raw material procurement control is obvious. Coke enterprises' inventories have continuously accumulated, and some enterprises are under inventory pressure. The demand for raw coal has weakened, and it is expected that the coking coal price will be weak in the short term [3]. - The steel mills' coke inventories are mostly at a reasonable level, and procurement is still mainly controlled. Coupled with the expected decline in molten iron production, the rigid demand support for coke is weak. Although the supply has tightened slightly due to coke enterprises' production restrictions, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the market supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some停产 mines are resuming production, and others are maintaining normal production. The coking coal market has general transactions, weak purchasing sentiment, low acceptance of high - priced coal, and falling prices. After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further price cuts, making coking coal prices more likely to fall than rise [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 940, and the basis is 144.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - Positive Factors: Rising molten iron production and limited supply growth [5]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Fundamentals: Recently, environmental inspections have become stricter, with more coal mine shutdowns and production cuts in the main production areas. The downward space for coking coal prices is gradually narrowing, and the cost - side profit - sharing space is limited. Affected by losses and environmental policies, coke enterprises' production enthusiasm has declined, and some are still in a production - restricted state, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1330, and the basis is - 41, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. - Positive Factors: Rising molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - Coking Coal: On June 16 (17:30), the port spot prices of coking coal from different origins (Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.) in Hebei and Shandong vary, with prices ranging from 800 to 1330 [10]. - Coke: On June 16 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price indices show that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia at different ports range from 1170 to 1645 [11]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].