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广发期货日评-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-17 02:28

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term [2]. - The May economic data is mixed and difficult to provide clear direction. Future focus should be on tax periods and cross - half - year capital conditions [2]. - Geopolitical situations and Fed decisions impact gold, oil, and other commodity prices. The market has digested the Middle - East geopolitical risk, causing prices to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with TMT sectors rising. It is recommended to wait and consider selling put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premium [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is advisable to allocate long positions on dips as the 1.6% is the downward resistance level for the 10 - year bond yield [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates and the price approaches the previous high of $3450 (800 yuan), or if the risk - aversion sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, sell out - of - the - money call options [2]. Shipping Index Futures - Be cautious and wait, or consider the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity for the container shipping index (European line) [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - For steel, wait and consider the long - steel short - raw material spread operation. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with a resistance level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Consider the long - coking coal short - coke strategy. Coking coal's market is improving, while coke has a continued downward adjustment expectation and is close to the bottom [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in bottom - range oscillations. Try shorting on rebounds to 5300 - 5400 for ferrosilicon and 5700 - 5800 for manganese silicon [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper's domestic spot trading is weak, and the US is replenishing stocks. Zinc's price center is moving down, and inventory reduction supports the price. Nickel and stainless steel are in narrow - range oscillations. Tin is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to short on highs based on supply and inventory data [2]. Crude Oil - Wait and see. The resistance levels are [73, 74] for WTI, [74, 75] for Brent, and [530, 540] for SC [2]. Chemicals - For urea, take a bullish view in the short - term and consider positive spreads. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900. PTA is in a stalemate oscillation, and it is advisable to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, the market is oscillating. For palm oil, it may optimistically reach 8600 in the short - term. For sugar, cotton, and eggs, short on rebounds [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, maintain the short - on - rebounds strategy. For glass, short in the short - term. For rubber, hold short positions [2]. Industrial Silicon and New Energy - related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].