大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250617
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-17 03:15
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59080 - 60480. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,127 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 86,102 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 14,857 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 60,536 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.51%, with a production loss of 879 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 65,237 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 7,076 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,868 yuan/ton, with a higher profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - Basis: On June 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of smelters was 57,653 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 35,210 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 133,549 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 on the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, changing from long to short [8]. - Expectation: In May 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 78,875 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.43%. The import volume in May was 23,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may decrease. The price of 6% concentrate CIF has decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - dominated [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate, and cathode materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.79% day - on - day, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.25% day - on - day [14]. - Supply - Demand Data: In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate was 62.7%, and the daily production cost of spodumene was 60,536 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate was 54%, and the monthly production was 225,200 tons [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production of domestic spodumene and lithium mica has also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for different types of lithium ore [20][21]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The import volume of lithium carbonate also shows different trends [26][27]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [34][35]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed over time. There are also differences in the cost and profit of different production processes and product types [41][42][43]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide shows different trends in different periods, including the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other aspects [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Sales: The price, production, and sales volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The cost of battery cells also shows different trends [52][53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time. The capacity utilization rate also shows different trends [57][58]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The operating rate and inventory also show different trends [65][66]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The operating rate, export volume, and inventory also show different trends [70][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also show different trends [77][78][81][82].