摩根士丹利：中国汽车Robotaxi-炒作还是希望？

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the potential of robotaxis, highlighting the expected growth in Level 4+ autonomous driving vehicles, which are projected to reach over 20% penetration by 2035 [5]. - China is positioned as a leader in robotaxi development, with strong policy support and a significant existing taxi fleet that could facilitate the deployment of robotaxis [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the cost advantages of robotaxis over human-driven taxis, particularly in terms of operational costs, where robotaxis could become more profitable as the Bill of Materials (BOM) costs decline [18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global passenger vehicle market is projected to reach 94.7 million units by 2030, with 1.6 million units expected to be Level 4+ autonomous vehicles [8]. - China is expected to account for 25% of the global passenger vehicle market and 73% of the Level 4+ vehicles by 2030 [8]. Robotaxi Market Potential - China's taxi fleet consists of approximately 4 million units, with over 50% being online ride-sharing services, providing a substantial base for robotaxi deployment [12]. - The report forecasts that robotaxi penetration could increase significantly as ride-sharing continues to gain market share [12]. Competitive Landscape - Key players in the robotaxi space in China include WeRide, Pony AI, and Apollo Go, with varying fleet sizes and operational strategies [21]. - The report notes that early movers in the robotaxi market are likely to achieve breakeven sooner due to operational leverage and cost reductions [24]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates a decline in BOM costs as technology improves, which will enhance the economic viability of robotaxis [22]. - Scaling the fleet is expected to accelerate data accumulation, further improving algorithms and reducing costs [23].