摩根士丹利：聚焦-中国 6 月出口额下降

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [4] Core Insights - China exports have started to decline, with volumes down significantly year-over-year, indicating muted demand and well-stocked domestic US inventories [3][10] - The report suggests that the expected surge in imports during the 90-day tariff pause did not materialize, leading to lower US import volumes [7] - There is a potential shift in production to the US to avoid tariffs, which may support US manufacturing productivity and increase maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) demand [7] - The report highlights risks to short-cycle production rates in the second half of 2025, particularly for companies that guided for stability or acceleration without acknowledging pre-buying [8] Summary by Sections China Exports - China maritime exports have shown a mild recovery from April lows but remain down year-over-year, reflecting a lack of urgency in US imports during the tariff pause [3][10] US Import Trends - US import volumes, particularly from LA and Long Beach, have decreased in May and June, suggesting a potential shift in supply chain strategies [12] Manufacturing and Production - The report indicates that US manufacturing capacity utilization has increased post-election, with a notable disconnect between ISM New Orders and Imports, suggesting a strategic relocation of production [7][17] - The report anticipates an extended capital expenditure upcycle in the US, benefiting from protectionist policies and resulting in strong backlogs for certain companies [8] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as 3M, Lennox International, and Stanley Black & Decker are identified as most at risk for channel digestion in the second half of 2025 [8] - The report emphasizes a preference for US capital expenditure exposure, particularly in light of the current economic policies [8]