摩根士丹利：下一代光学技术-光路交换、光电共封装和线性驱动可插拔光模块

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [5]. Core Insights - The optical transceiver market, valued at approximately $8 billion, is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for high-speed AI networks. However, traditional architectures face challenges such as power drain, reliability, and cost. Newer architectures like Linear Pluggable Optics (LPO), Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) are emerging as solutions, each with unique advantages and challenges [3][8][13]. Summary by Sections Optical Technologies Overview - The report discusses the need for advanced optical technologies due to increasing power and reliability demands in AI networks. It highlights the linear adoption of these technologies, particularly LPO, CPO, and OCS, while noting the challenges associated with their implementation [3][4]. Market Growth and Dynamics - The datacomm optical components market is projected to grow at approximately 10% over the next five years, indicating a robust demand for higher-speed transceivers that connect servers and switches [13]. Adoption Challenges - LPO is identified as the most likely to see near-term adoption due to its similarity to traditional architectures, which allows for a larger ecosystem of providers. However, there are concerns that hyperscalers may prefer more permanent solutions than LPO, which is often viewed as a transitional technology [4][8]. OCS and CPO Insights - OCS and CPO are considered more complex solutions, with adoption expected to be further off due to significant rearchitecting and investment requirements. The report notes that while there is interest from major players like Google and Oracle, the transition to these technologies will take years [5][9]. Beneficiaries of Technology Adoption - The report identifies potential beneficiaries of these technologies, with ANET likely to benefit from LPO adoption, while LITE and COHR may see more advantages from OCS if it gains traction [3][8]. Technical Advantages and Challenges - LPO offers lower power consumption and cost efficiency by eliminating the need for Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), but it has limitations in transmission lengths and interoperability. CPO promises lower power consumption and reduced latency but faces challenges in yield and ecosystem development. OCS provides reliability and efficiency but requires sophisticated control software and is less suited for dynamic traffic flows [49][41][32][42][50].