摩根士丹利：美国股票策略- 领先指标显示收益韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Capital Goods and Software sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for these industries [57]. Core Insights - Leading indicators suggest a stronger earnings backdrop than anticipated, with high-single-digit EPS growth projected over the next year [4][9]. - Earnings revisions breadth has improved significantly, moving from -25% in mid-April to -9%, indicating a positive shift in earnings expectations [4][9]. - The Non-PMI Leading Earnings Indicator points to mid-teens EPS growth by the first half of 2026, driven by stable demand and reduced material costs [4][9]. - A weaker US dollar, down 11% from January highs, is expected to provide additional support for US earnings trends, with further downside anticipated [4][9]. Summary by Sections Earnings Outlook - The main earnings model forecasts high-single-digit EPS growth for the next year, supported by improving earnings revisions breadth [4][9]. - The Non-PMI Leading Earnings Indicator suggests mid-teens EPS growth by 1H26, driven by demand stability and lower material costs [4][9]. Sector Preferences - Capital Goods and Software sectors are highlighted as key beneficiaries of a weaker dollar, with significant inverse correlations between earnings revisions breadth and the dollar [16][21]. - Capital Goods are expected to benefit from infrastructure build-out, while Software is positioned to leverage GenAI for cost efficiency and revenue growth [13][15]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of earnings revisions breadth as a driver for industry group outperformance, particularly for Capital Goods and Software [12][22]. - The US equity market is preferred over international equities due to stronger earnings revisions in the US compared to Europe and Japan [22]. Financial Sector Insights - The Financials sector is viewed positively, with expectations of a stabilizing M&A environment and resilient consumer conditions [31][33]. - Companies are leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute positively to earnings growth [37][39].