花旗：关于预测黄金会跌到3000$以下

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on aluminium and copper, recommending long-term buying opportunities, while suggesting a bearish trend for gold prices in the coming years [18][33][26]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook is challenging, with high US interest rates constraining growth, but potential stimulatory measures from the US government could improve sentiment and growth in the medium term [15][49]. - Gold prices are expected to consolidate around $3,100-$3,500/oz in the near term, but a decline to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz is anticipated by the second half of 2026 due to decreasing investment demand [18][26]. - Aluminium is projected to have a long-term upside of 20-40%, driven by demand from AI, datacentres, and decarbonization efforts, with limited supply growth expected [18][33][37]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary, Price Forecasts, and Conviction Ideas - Gold's investment demand is at an all-time high, with spending at ~0.5% of global GDP, but is expected to decline as growth sentiment improves [23][24]. - EUAs are forecasted to potentially reach €95/t by year-end, indicating a nearly 30% upside from current prices [18]. Global Macroeconomic Outlook - The US economy is facing high interest rates, which have constrained growth, but upcoming fiscal measures could stimulate economic activity [15][49]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Iran/Israel conflict, poses risks to oil prices but is not expected to significantly impact the base case scenario [55]. Precious Metals and PGMs - Gold prices are projected to fall by 20-25% by late 2025 and into 2026 as investment demand wanes [26][29]. - The report suggests that gold producers should hedge against potential price declines below $3,600-$3,700/oz [26]. Energy - The report anticipates a 25% Section 232 tariff on copper, which could lead to a premium for Comex copper over LME prices [18][41]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60-65/bbl by the second half of 2025, despite geopolitical tensions [55]. Industrial and Battery Metals - Aluminium is highlighted as a key growth area, with demand expected to outpace supply, leading to potential deficits [33][37]. - Copper is also expected to see significant demand growth, although it may experience short-term weakness due to tariff impacts [18][41]. Agriculture - The report does not provide specific insights on agriculture commodities in this section. Bulks - The report does not provide specific insights on bulks in this section. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a mixed outlook for various commodities, with bullish sentiments for aluminium and copper, while forecasting a decline in gold prices as global growth sentiment improves [18][26][33].