合成橡胶产业日报-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of raw material butadiene is relatively sufficient, weakening the cost support for butadiene rubber production. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers have carried out maintenance and shutdowns. Some traders have placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors has hindered sales. Producer inventories have slightly decreased, while trader inventories have increased. [2] - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously overhauled enterprises have gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position of the main contract was 16,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,138 yuan/ton. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 5,170 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in different regions showed various changes, with prices ranging from 11,600 - 11,650 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.23 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1 dollar/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil was 71.77 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.21 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 800 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton. The price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 624.13 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.63 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,050 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.03%, a decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, an increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The producer inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 650 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 530 tons to 6,210 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires was 1,182 thousand pieces, a decrease of 126 thousand pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,415 thousand pieces, a decrease of 124 thousand pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, a decrease of 0.13 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.28 days, an increase of 0.44 days. [2] Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons or 0.35%. [2] - As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]