瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 17, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,536 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. In terms of cost, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 198,000 tons this period. The downstream hot metal output has peaked and declined, and the raw material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is -170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is -400 yuan/ton. In the market, steel mills are cautious in purchasing, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 17, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,264 yuan/ton, up 0.88%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that by 2040, China's nuclear power installed capacity will reach 200 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about 10% of power generation. In terms of demand, the current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia has been reduced, and the cost support has weakened. The overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. Pay attention to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is -430 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,536 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton; SF main contract closing price: 5,264 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 608,735 lots, down 8,358 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 427,046 lots, down 5,487 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in manganese-silicon: -29,234 lots, down 2,400 lots; net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon: -25,934 lots, down 1,661 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 24 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: -34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 95,641 lots, down 527 lots; SF warehouse receipts: 15,161 lots, down 32 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese-silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Guizhou manganese-silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese-silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese-silicon index average: 5,423 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; SF main contract basis: -54 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton [2]. - SM main contract basis: -106 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 31 yuan/ton-degree, unchanged; silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi-coke (medium material, Shenmu): 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.401 million tons, up 198,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese-silicon enterprise operating rate: 35.3%, up 0.27 percentage points; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 31.35%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - Manganese-silicon supply: 173,390 tons, up 1,505 tons; ferrosilicon supply: 95,100 tons, down 2,200 tons [2]. - Manganese-silicon manufacturers' inventory: 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons [2]. - Manganese-silicon inventory days of national steel mills: 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills: 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Demand for manganese-silicon from five major steel types: 122,153 tons, down 3,640 tons; demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types: 19,607.8 tons, down 716.9 tons [2]. - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel production: 86.55 million tons, up 531,000 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics' 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month-on-month. New home prices in first - and second - tier cities both decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, and second - hand home prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year decline in housing prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow [2]. - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%; the floor area under construction was 6.2502 trillion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; the newly started floor area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. At the end of May, the floor area of commercial housing for sale was 774.27 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 7.15 million square meters [2]. - The Swiss government lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The export - oriented economy is facing the impact of the global trade war. The Swiss economic growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, lower than the 1.4% forecast by the government in March. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) also lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.2%, and exports are expected to decline [2].