瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of loose supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly converging demand. It is recommended to conduct shock trading with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast aluminum is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,860 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The LME three - month aluminum quotation was 2,517 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5356 hands, and those of alumina decreased by 1 hand. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.02 [2]. - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 19,565 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the positions increased by 291 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 225 yuan to 485 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 65 yuan to 160 yuan. The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium increased by 240 yuan to 200 yuan; the LME aluminum premium increased by 2.81 US dollars to 2.39 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons per month, down 15.22 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons per month, down 30.02 million tons [2]. - The average price of broken raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste decreased by 50 yuan to 16,350 yuan/ton; the import volume of aluminum waste and scrap in China increased by 6,949.79 tons to 190,390.17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 28,656.52 tons to 250,476.81 tons; the export volume increased by 4,972.94 tons to 13,672.79 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 20,000 tons to 4,520.20 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 576.40 million tons per month, down 21.77 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.37 million tons to 61.60 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.16 million tons to 1.66 million tons [2]. - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.13; the automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles per month, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum remained unchanged at 9.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.03 to 10.41% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0022 to 11.21%; the call - put ratio increased by 0.0278 to 0.85 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In May, the added value of large - scale industries nationwide increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year [2]. - From January to May, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year, and the new housing construction area decreased by 22.8%. In May, the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month [2]. - In June, the manufacturing activity in New York State contracted more than expected, and the New York Fed manufacturing index dropped nearly 7 points to - 16, remaining in the contraction range for the fourth consecutive month [2].