瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250617

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of a slight decline in supply and demand. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis and the red bar is expanding. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Content Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 9,698 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai copper is 184,424 hands, down 7,819 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 10,546 hands, up 6,664 hands. LME copper inventory is 107,325 tons, down 7,150 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 101,943 tons, down 5,461 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 54,600 tons, down 1,725 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 54,541 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,715 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,745 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 40 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 145 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 95.59 dollars/ton, up 22.18 dollars. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.75 dollars/kiloton, down 1.46 dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,020 yuan/metal ton, up 50 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 69,720 yuan/metal ton, up 50 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,050 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 1,408.16 billion yuan, up 451.95 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 36,234 billion yuan, up 8,504.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,240,000 million pieces, up 73,000 million pieces [2]. 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.42%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.75%, down 0.35%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.12%, up 0.0033%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.07, down 0.0017 [2]. 7. Industry News - In May, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first 5 months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The new development momentum of high - end manufacturing and digital economy continued to grow. From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 36,234 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May, the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month. In June, the manufacturing activity in New York State contracted more than expected [2].