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瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250617
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-17 09:37

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall: The report analyzes the rapeseed industry from multiple aspects including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and market news, and provides viewpoints on rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal. However, the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds potential supply increase, dragging down the rapeseed meal price. Today, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher supported by the rise of soybean meal, and short - term participation is advisable [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Palm oil producing areas enter the seasonal production increase season, and the output pressure restricts its market price. Although the export increase of palm oil provides some support, the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills restricts the rapeseed oil market. The expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds future supply pressure, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost - side support for domestic rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9583 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; that of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2682 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 735.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 11.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed (active contract) is 5067 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 124 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 290 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 362,934 lots, up 39,887 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 526,737 lots, down 7,445 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 39,743 lots, up 7,757 lots; for rapeseed meal is 26,915 lots, down 819 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 0, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 25,907, down 270 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9650 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9653.75 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5482.02 yuan/ton, up 76.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Ratios and Spreads: The oil - meal ratio is 3.63, up 0.08; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 145 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 72 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1380 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8810 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 860 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 310 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Profit: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 25 million tons, unchanged; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 14 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. - 提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month feed production is 26.64 million tons, down 1.132 million tons; the current - month edible vegetable oil production is 4.404 million tons, down 0.87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 416.7 billion yuan, down 6.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.96%, up 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.95%, up 0.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.28%, up 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.26%, up 0.26% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.91%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.39%, down 0.01%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.44%, down 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.45%, up 0.06% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Rapeseed Futures: On June 16, ICE rapeseed futures jumped following the rise of soybean oil prices, reaching a 19 - month high. The July rapeseed contract closed 12.10 Canadian dollars higher at 743.10 Canadian dollars per ton, and the November contract rose 12.70 Canadian dollars to 735.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Soybean Conditions: As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70%. The decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is constrained by good weather this week. The sharp rise in US soybean oil boosts the US soybean market, and through cost transmission, it is beneficial to domestic meal prices [2]. 3.8 Palm Oil Situation - Inventory: The May palm oil inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase, reaching the highest level in 8 months [2]. - Output and Demand: Palm oil - producing areas enter the seasonal production increase season, with output pressure restricting the market. However, the increase in exports supports the palm oil market. The US EPA's proposal to increase the biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027 boosts the demand expectation for US soybean oil [2].