永安期货LPG早报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Analysis 3.1 Price and Basis Changes - Daily Price Changes: On June 16, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to 4610 (down 10), 4616 (up 53), and 4720 (up 80) respectively; the price of ether - post carbon four increased by 30 to 4980. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4610. The PG futures price rose significantly, with the basis of the 07 contract changing to 212 (down 9) and the 07 - 09 spread changing to 178 (down 17) [1] - Weekly Changes: The civil LPG price increased significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4603. The 07 contract basis weakened to 221 (down 130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (up 10). The PG - CP spread was 18 US dollars (up 27), and the FEI - CP spread was - 19 (up 31) [1] 3.2 Market Factors - Supply - related Factors: The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] - Demand - related Factors: Chemical demand improved overall. The PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] 3.3 Profit and Spread Analysis - Profit Changes: PDH production profit deteriorated, with FEI production profit lower than CP on a weekly basis and higher than CP on a daily basis. Alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, and isomerization etherification profit decreased [1] - Spread Movements: FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads decreased [1] 3.4 Other Information - The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (down 335) [1]