芳烃橡胶早报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The near - end TA start - up continues to rise, and new devices steadily increase their load. Polyester start - up declines slightly, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains strong while spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas rises, PXN and its structure continue to weaken. The subsequent bottle - chip contradiction may drag down polyester load further, and TA may enter the inventory accumulation stage. [2] - MEG: Near - end maintenance resumes, start - up rises significantly. With stable arrivals, port inventory accumulates slightly, downstream stocking levels decline, the basis weakens, and oil - based benefits are compressed. The port destocking stage is over, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly accumulative stage. [7] - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - end device operation is stable, start - up remains at 92.1%, production and sales improve, and inventory decreases. Downstream polyester yarn start - up declines, raw material stocking increases, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken. Processing fees are expected to remain weak. [7] - Natural Rubber & 20 - numbered Rubber: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable with a low absolute level but no seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. [7] - Styrene: There are various price changes in raw materials and products. Domestic profits of styrene, EPS, and PS have different trends. [12] 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From June 10 to June 16, crude oil price changed from 66.9 to 73.2, PTA spot price from 4855 to 5005, and PTA processing fee from 388 to 297. [2] - Device Changes: Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million - ton device restarted. [2] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From June 10 to June 16, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 790, MEG domestic price rose from 4376 to 4426, and MEG coal - based profit remained at 414. [7] - Device Changes: Satellite's 900,000 - ton device was under maintenance, Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased load, and Hengli's 900,000 - ton device restarted. [7] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From June 10 to June 16, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose from 6575 to 6690, and short - fiber profit increased from - 59 to - 89. [7] - Device and Market Conditions: Near - end device operation was stable, start - up remained at 92.1%, production and sales improved, and inventory decreased. [7] Natural Rubber & 20 - numbered Rubber - Price Changes: From June 10 to June 16, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber rose from 1695 to 1695, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber rose from 13405 to 13510. [7] - Key Indicators: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded. [7] Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From June 10 to June 16, ethylene price remained at 790, pure benzene (CFR China) price rose from 744 to 782, and styrene domestic profit remained at 317. [12]