美银：全球基金经理调查-The Buck Stops Here

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with a Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 5.4, suggesting a balanced outlook for global equities [12][75]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels as fears of trade wars and recessions diminish, with cash levels decreasing to 4.2% from 4.8% in April [1][17]. - Expectations for global growth have improved, with a significant reversal in recession odds, dropping from 42% likelihood in April to 36% in June [2][18]. - The best-performing asset expected over the next five years is international stocks, with 54% of investors favoring them, followed by US stocks at 23% [3][50]. Summary by Sections Macro & Micro - Global growth expectations remain weak, with a net of 46% of investors expecting a weaker economy, although this is an improvement from a record 82% in April [2][22]. - The sentiment for a "soft landing" has risen to 66%, the highest since October 2024, while "hard landing" expectations have decreased to 13% [23][24]. Returns, Risks, Crowds - The most crowded trades include long gold (41%) and long Magnificent 7 (23%), with trade war recession still seen as the primary tail risk at 47% [3][54]. - A net 21% of investors expect higher long-term bond yields, the highest since August 2022 [49]. Asset Allocation - There has been a rotation towards emerging markets, energy, banks, and industrials, while reducing exposure to staples, utilities, and healthcare [4][60]. - The average cash level among investors has decreased to 4.2%, indicating a shift towards equities [17][75]. Corporate Sentiment - Investors view corporate balance sheets as the healthiest since December 2015, with a net 3% stating companies are "underleveraged" [43]. - There is a strong desire for companies to return cash to shareholders, with 32% of investors advocating for this strategy, the highest since July 2013 [46]. Sector and Regional Allocation - FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities, while being net 34% overweight Eurozone equities [139][140]. - The allocation to banks has increased significantly, with a net 25% overweight position, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the financial sector [156].