瑞银：新兴市场信贷_ 年中展望 - 如何应对 2025 年下半年

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight (OW) rating on AA/A and rising-star credits while underweighting (UW) single-B credits [9]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) credit is facing conflicting macroeconomic factors, with weakening fiscal dynamics and expensive valuations, while US portfolio reallocations may provide some support [2]. - The report anticipates a widening of EM credit spreads by 40-50 basis points (bps) by year-end, with total returns expected to be around 3%-4% due to gains from U.S. Treasuries and carry [3]. - The gap between nominal GDP growth and effective interest rates in EM is expected to narrow significantly, which may slow credit rating improvements [4][31]. - Oil prices present a specific risk to EM, with expectations of Brent averaging $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to underperformance in EM if prices fall below $60 [5][7]. - The relative size of the EM credit market compared to the U.S. suggests that even small reallocations could have a significant impact on EM debt flows [8][54]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Dynamics - The gap between nominal GDP growth and effective interest rates is projected to decrease to 2.7 percentage points (ppt) in 2025/26 from 14.6 ppt in 2021/22, indicating a normalization of fiscal conditions [4][31]. - Countries with significant primary balance deficits, such as Bahrain, Brazil, and Romania, are highlighted as more exposed to these fiscal dynamics [4]. Oil Price Impact - The report notes that a recent rally in oil prices has benefited EM credit, but a decline in prices could lead to a direct impact of 8-21 bps on an index level [5][49]. - The weight of oil-related credits in the EMBI index is expected to decrease, which may mitigate some risks associated with falling oil prices [7][42]. U.S. Portfolio Flows - U.S. investors' allocation to EM government bonds is currently below historical averages, suggesting potential inflows of $85 billion to $90 billion if allocations return to previous levels [8][56]. - Specific countries like Argentina and Mexico are identified as having low allocations compared to historical data, indicating opportunities for increased investment [8][64]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on AA/A rated credits with low issuance pressures and fiscally strong stories, while being cautious with single-B rated credits due to their exposure to oil price fluctuations [9].