野村：美元兑人民币中间价模型_

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The model projection for USD/CNY fix is 7.1680, which is 123 pips lower than the previous projection of 7.1803 and 144 pips lower from the previous official spot close [1]. - The model projection with the counter-cyclical factor is 7.1622, indicating a decrease of 181 pips from the previous fix [1]. - The top four weighted contributions to the projected change (in pips) are negative, with AUD, EUR, GBP, and JPY showing significant declines [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Model Projections - The USD/CNY fix model projects a value of 7.1680, which reflects a downward adjustment compared to previous figures [1]. - The counter-cyclical factor adjustment results in a slightly lower projection of 7.1622 [1]. Section 2: Contributions to Change - The report highlights the top four currencies contributing to the projected change, all showing negative contributions, indicating a bearish sentiment in the foreign exchange market [3]. Section 3: Daily Model Errors - Recent model errors without counter-cyclical factor adjustments show significant fluctuations, with daily errors reaching up to 400 pips [5]. - The daily change in USD/CNY fix has also exhibited volatility, with notable pips changes recorded over the specified period [7].