野村：中国_ 尽管贷款增长不及预期，5 月信贷增长仍保持平稳

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Credit growth in China remained steady in May despite disappointing loan growth, with new aggregate financing (AF) at RMB2,289 billion, slightly below market expectations [5][8] - The growth rate of outstanding AF remained unchanged at 8.7% year-on-year [5][8] - New RMB loans were significantly weaker than expected at RMB620 billion, leading to a decline in the growth rate of outstanding RMB loans to a historical low of 7.1% year-on-year [5][6][8] - The slowdown in loan growth is attributed to the ongoing government debt swap program, which has reduced new long-term corporate loan issuance [5][7] Summary by Sections Aggregate Financing - New aggregate financing (AF) in May was RMB2,289 billion, below the consensus of RMB2,332 billion and Nomura's forecast of RMB2,374 billion [5][8] - The growth in outstanding AF remained steady at 8.7% year-on-year, unchanged from April [5][8] - Government bonds were the primary driver of AF, with net financing rising to RMB1,463 billion in May from RMB1,227 billion a year ago [9] Loan Growth - New RMB loans fell to RMB620 billion in May, significantly below the consensus of RMB900 billion and the previous year's RMB950 billion [6][8] - The growth of outstanding RMB loans decreased to 7.1% year-on-year in May from 7.2% in April, marking a new historical low [5][6] - The decline in new loans was primarily due to a sharp decrease in medium- to long-term loans and bill financing [7][13] Monetary Policy and Future Expectations - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to introduce new policy-based financing tools at the upcoming Lujiazui Forum, aimed at supporting science & technology, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] - The new funding initiative could be around RMB500 billion, similar to a previous program introduced in 2022, which focused on major projects in various sectors [3]