摩根士丹利：生物制药-一图胜千言

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" rating for Major Pharmaceuticals and an "Attractive" rating for Biotechnology in North America [7]. Core Insights - The latest weekly Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) growth in the US was +2.4%, slightly down from +2.9% the previous week and consistent with +2.3% over the past 12 weeks [1][6]. - The rolling 4-week Total Prescription YoY growth was also +2.4%, while the rolling 12-week growth was +2.3% [2]. - The report highlights the launch performance of new drugs, such as BMY's Cobenfy for schizophrenia and VRTX's Journavx for acute pain, providing insights into their prescription trends and market expectations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Prescription Trends - The Total Market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.4% compared to +1.9% a year ago, indicating a positive trend in prescription growth [2]. - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +1.0%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2]. Drug Launch Performance - BMY's Cobenfy has seen approximately 1,930 scripts in its launch week, up from 1,660 the previous week, with expectations to achieve 2025 consensus estimates requiring a TRx of ~153K [3]. - VRTX's Journavx recorded around 5,340 scripts in its launch week, with hospital scripts making up about 28% of total scripts, indicating strong initial uptake [4]. Key Product Analysis - The report includes a detailed analysis of key products' TRx YoY percentages, highlighting significant growth in drugs like Skyrizi (+44%) and Sotyktu (+77%), while others like Humira (-36%) and Revlimid (-12%) showed declines [21][23]. - The report also tracks the performance of the GLP-1 franchise, with Mounjaro and Zepbound showing substantial growth rates of 75% and 248% respectively [25][46].