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《农产品》日报-20250618
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-18 01:08

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - Soybean oil: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - Corn: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - Corn starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - Futures: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - Spot: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - Futures: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - Spot: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - Futures: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].